The USA PATRIOT Act provides a textbook example of how the United States federal government expands its power. An emergency happens, legitimate or otherwise. The media, playing its dutiful role as goad for greater government oversight, demands "something must be done." Government power is massively expanded, with little regard for whether or not what is being done is efficacious, to say nothing of the overall impact on our nation's civil liberties.
No goals are posted, because if targets are hit, this would necessitate the ending or scaling back of the program. Instead, the program becomes normalized. There are no questions asked about whether the program is accomplishing what it set out to do. It is now simply a part of American life and there is no going back.
The American public largely accepts the USA PATRIOT Act as a part of civic life as immutable, perhaps even more so than the Bill of Rights. However, this act – passed in the dead of night, with little to no oversight, in a panic after the biggest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor – is not only novel, it is also fundamentally opposed to virtually every principle on which the United States of America was founded. It might not be going anywhere anytime soon, but patriots, liberty lovers and defenders of Constitutional government should nonetheless familiarize themselves with the onerous provisions of this law, which is nothing short of a full-throttle attack on the American republic.

What’s Even in the USA PATRIOT Act?

What is in the USA PATRIOT Act? In the Michael Moore film Fahrenheit 9/11, then Rep. John Conyers cracked wise about how no one had actually read the Act and how this was in fact par for the course with America's laws. Thus, before delving into the deeper issues surrounding the PATRIOT Act, it is worth discussing what the Act actually says. Here’s a brief look at the 10 Titles in the PATRIOT Act:

• Title I: Enhancing Domestic Security Against Terrorism: This provision dramatically expands the powers of the President, the military and the intelligence community whenever the specter of "terrorism" is invoked. Bizarrely, it contains a provision condemining discrimination against Arabs, Muslims and South Asians, which seems to have very little to do with protecting Americans from terrorism.
• Title II: Enhanced Surveillance Procedures: Title II contains the meat of the Act with regard to massive, industrial-scale surveillance on the American public. Beyond the simple spying on Americans and their communications, Title II increases the ability of federal intelligence agencies to share your private communications with one another.
• Title III: International Money Laundering Abatement and Financial Anti-Terrorism Act: Not simply a section of the USA PATRIOT Act, Title III is an Act of Congress in its own right. You might have noticed how much more difficult it is to open a bank account or send a wire transfer after 9/11. You can blame this provision, which shredded banking privacy rights in the United States.
• Title IV: Protecting the Border: Other than expanding the number of federal employees (of course), the provision of the USA PATRIOT Act charged with protecting America's borders does little other than point toward paths for future action and study. It is worth noting that the weakest provision of the Act is the only one explicitly authorized by the Constitution -- protecting the border.
• Title V: Removing Obstacles to Investigating Terrorism: Title V authorizes bounties for the apprehension of alleged terrorists, broadens government power to conduct DNA analysis, allows for greater data sharing between law enforcement agencies and, perhaps most disturbingly, requires private telecommunication carriers to comply with government requests for electronic communication records whenever requested by the FBI. It also expands the power of the Secret Service to investigate computer fraud.
• Title VI: Providing for Victims of Terrorism, Public Safety Officers and Their Families: Perhaps the most innocuous portion of the USA PATRIOT Act, Title VI provides for a victims' fund for victims of terrorism and their families.
• Title VII: Increased Information Sharing for Critical Infrastructure Protection: The subtitle of this section of the Act is a rather wordy way of saying that the United States federal government is allowing for law enforcement agencies to share information across jurisdictional boundaries in an easier fashion than was previously legal. To that end, the Bureau of Justice Assistance was given a $50,000,000 budget for 2002 and a whopping $100,000,000 budget for fiscal year 2003.
• Title VIII: Strengthening the Criminal Laws Against Terrorism: Title VIII is where the rubber meets the road: What exactly is terrorism, according to the federal government? Unfortunately, this Title does little to clarify what terrorism is, instead focusing on declaring a number of actions (such as attacks on transit) as “terrorism,” regardless of intent.
• Title IX: Improved Intelligence: The section subtitled “improved intelligence” largely expands the powers and responsibilities of the Director of Central Intelligence.
• Title X: Miscellaneous: When the federal government titles a segment of a law “miscellaneous,” you know it’s going to include everything and the kitchen sink. And so it does: The definition of electronic surveillance, additional funds for the DEA in South and Central Asia, research on biometric scanning systems, a limitation on hazmat licensure and infrastructure protections are all addressed in Title X, which is a catchall for everything the federal government forgot to address in the first nine sections of the law.

Most of the provisions of the USA PATRIOT Act were set to sunset four years after the bill was passed into law. However, the law was extended first by President George W. Bush and then by President Barack H. Obama. The latter is particularly scandalous given that, at least in part, a rejection of the surveillance culture that permeated the Bush Administration was responsible for the election of Obama in 2008.

Passing the USA PATRIOT Act

Next, it’s important to remember the environment in which the USA PATRIOT Act was passed: Post-9/11. It is not the slightest bit of exaggeration to label the environment in which the PATRIOT Act was passed as “hysterical,” nor is “compliant” a misnomer for the Congress of the time. Opposition to the Act was slim and intensive review of one of the most sweeping Acts of Congress in American history was nonexistent.
All told, Congress took a whopping six weeks drafting, revising, reviewing and passing the PATRIOT Act. That’s less time than Congress typically spends on totally uncontroversial and routine bills that don’t gut the Fourth Amendment. The final vote found only 66 opponents in the House and one (Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold) in the Senate. The entire passage of the PATRIOT Act, from start to finish, took place behind closed doors. There were no committee reports or hearings for opponents to testify, nor did anyone bother to read the bill.
“Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism” is the bloated and overwrought full name of the bill, crafted by a 23-year-old Congressional staffer named Chris Cylke. This ridiculous name puts the focus not on the surveillance aspects or the erosion of basic civil liberties enshrined in Western society since the Magna Carta, but on patriotism. At the time of its creation, the messaging was very clear: Real patriots support massive intrusions on civil rights. As President George W. Bush said at the time, “Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.” This sentiment very much seemed to apply to American citizens.
While the argument that if you have nothing to hide you shouldn’t fear investigation is anathema in a Constitutional republic with regard to citizens, it should be standard operating procedure when it comes to our organs of government. If we cannot expect transparency from the United States Congress – elected officials charged with representing the will of the people and protecting the Constitution – then we certainly can’t expect it anywhere else.

The Unfortunate Growth of the USA PATRIOT Act

It’s no surprise to those in the liberty movement that given an inch, the government (in particular the military-intelligence community) took a mile. Even the nebulous definition of “terrorism,” largely centered around a long litany of acts rather than the motivation behind them, has expanded to include receiving military training from a proscribed organization (without actually committing any terrorist acts or even acts of violence of any stripe) as well as “narcoterrorism” – the latter particularly convenient, as the United States government continues its losing “War on Drugs.”
Indeed, in many ways, the War on (Some) Drugs was the template for the War on Terror. Both wars have no defined enemy, no defined terms of victory. Instead, they are waged against a nebulous concept, while enjoying bipartisan support for their ever-expanding budgets. What’s more, it didn’t take long for the Feds to start using the USA PATRIOT Act for things it was never intended for, including prosecuting the War on Drugs.
Perhaps the silliest application of the USA PATRIOT Act is the prosecution of Adam McGaughey. McGaughey maintained a fansite for the television series Stargate SG-1. The Feds charged him with copyright infringement and computer fraud. In the course of their investigation, the FBI leveraged the PATRIOT Act to get financial records from his website’s ISP. This was made possible by the USA PATRIOT Act amending the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act, allowing for search and seizure of ISP records.
The New York Times discovered in September 2003, that the USA PATRIOT Act was being used to investigate alleged drug traffickers without what would otherwise be sufficient probable cause. These were investigations into non-terrorist acts using a law ostensibly designed to investigate terrorism. There was some suspicion that the Act was being used to investigate crimes occurring before the Act was passed, violating the ex post facto clause of the United States Constitution.
In one of the biggest power grabs (excluding virtually everything we know from Edward Snowden – more on that below), the FBI sent tens of thousands of “national security letters” and procured over one million financial records from targeted businesses in Las Vegas. These businesses were primarily casinos, car rental bureaus and storage spaces. The data obtained included financial records, credit histories, employment records and even people’s personal health records.
The FBI maintains and databases this – and, indeed, all information collected through the USA PATRIOT Act – indefinitely. In the good old days before the PATRIOT Act, the Feds were compelled to destroy any evidence they collected on someone later found not guilty of a crime. Note that the aforementioned data collection brought to public attention by Edward Snowden (which, again – we’re getting to that) falls under this provision. Not only is the government collecting obscene amounts of private and personal information about you, they’re also storing it indefinitely with no plans to stop.
What’s more, the FBI has approached public libraries to turn over the records for specific terminals, collecting information not about specific users who might be under investigation, but about anyone who has ever used the computer at the public library. Libraries, to their credit, have been very much at the forefront of resistance against the PATRIOT Act, with some litigating compliance despite operating on small budgets and others posting “canary letters,” which effectively say “The FBI Hasn’t Been Here Yet.” The removal of such a letter would warn patrons that the FBI has been sniffing around in their records.
Indeed, the greatest criticism of the PATRIOT Act is the simplest and perhaps most obvious: Why does an Act ostensibly passed to fight terrorism so drastically expand the government’s power to investigate virtually everyone else? The PATRIOT Act is not merely unconstitutional, it is an unprecedented expansion of state power in the Anglosphere, a culture based on restricted government and the primacy of individual rights.
An excellent example of this is the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) expansion. Most people are familiar with the term “FISA court,” but very few people actually know what it is – a special federal court created under the Carter Administration that grants approval of electronic surveillance of both citizens and resident aliens in the event that they are accused of acting in the service of a foreign power. The last part of this sentence is very important: The FISA courts are not simply for allowing surveillance of anyone that it might be expedient to collect information about. The scope of their powers is very, very limited.
Or was.
The PATRIOT Act lowered the burden of evidence required to obtain a FISA warrant for electronic surveillance and expanded the overall scope of the FISA courts. Any savvy federal agent can now drape his charges in the garb of (what else?) “national security” and obtain electronic surveillance privileges hitherto only dreamed of by investigators. FISA courts have become pliant tools in the hands of the Feds, gladly approving their requests to monitor phone and internet surveillance, as well as access to medical, financial and educational records.

The Future of the USA PATRIOT Act

Do we still need the PATRIOT Act? Did we ever? All laws are certainly a product of their times. But this seems much more acutely true of the USA PATRIOT Act, which was passed in a rush and under duress without due consideration.
Particularly in light of the revelations from Edward Snowden – that the government is spying on everything they possibly can – it’s worth asking if there’s any walking back. He points out that the police state apparatus was originally for drug dealers, then for terrorists, but ultimately ended up being applied to anyone and everyone.
What’s more, Bob Bullard notes another frightful aspect of the USA PATRIOT Act: Terrorism-related cases are not subject to the Freedom of Information Act. This means that there is little or no oversight. There is no surer hallmark of a police state than an all-powerful domestic surveillance agency with no transparency or oversight. While the USA PATRIOT Act might not create an American Stasi as such, it certainly paves the way for one.
Continue reading The USA PATRIOT Act: The Story of an Impulsive Bill that Eviscerated America's Civil Liberties at Ammo.com.

I'm looking to host a casino night for me and a small group of friends this spring. Probably 10-15 people at most. The goal is to teach a bunch of them craps before we go to Vegas this summer. But also to have a fun time for my birthday. Only 2 of us really know how to play but neither of us are skilled enough to deal (add in large amounts of booze and it'll be a disaster).
Has anyone hired a dealer for the night? Most places are quoting me $700ish for 3 hours with 1 dealer. Just wondering if anyone has any suggestions or experience.

-Golden Matrix, a B2B gaming and sports betting software platform provider with a turn key solution to all customer needs for successfully operating and maintaining an online gaming/sports betting website.
-Golden Matrix has recently filed an application for a Nasdaq Capital Markets Uplist with approval pending.
-Golden Matrix and Playtech announced a collaboration agreement that has just kicked off this month including GMGI's all new Esports & Peer2P apps.
-Golden Matrix reached an agreement with Amelco Gaming to distribute Amelco's leading international sports betting software white labeled in the APAC Region.
-Knutsson Holdings Invests $5M with GMGI purchasing 1 Million shares at $5.00 each.
What is Golden Matrix?
Golden Matrix Group GMGI is a very unique part of the online gambling industry that doesn't get much recognition compared to the actual sports betting companies and casinos, such as Draftkings DKNG or BetMGM. Draftkings for an example is a front-end operator Business to Consumer (B2C), they are what the consumer sees on the app. Where on the other hand, GMGI is the back-end white labeled software platform, Business to Business (B2B). GMGI has everything provided to convert a land based brick and mortar casino to an online casino, including everything from data analytics, games, game management, payment gateways, currencies, languages, 24/7 tech support and more. So what I'm trying to say is Golden Matrix has everything required to setup an online casino or sports betting application. With what's going on in the world today, an online presence is a must. So this is how GMGI and GAN type companies differ from the rest of the online gaming world, as their work is mainly behind the curtains, but are needed in order to run an online casino or sport betting platform.
Seeing Golden Matrix is not a front-end B2C retail casino, they do not have to pay hundreds of thousands or even millions to advertise. As a matter of fact they don't have to pay anything, which in turn keeps the operating expenses nice and low. They make their money by setting up operators at no cost and make their money licensing the front-end casinos, usage, and providing services. It's much more low key, and they don't have to be the bank like all the front end companies such as Draftkings, BetMGM, Bet365, etc...
Continuous Revenue Growth
Here's a brief summary on Golden Matrix's more recent growth. Just since last January (2020) they have grown their operators (Casinos) from 150 to 457 of them today, a 205% Increase, and Registered End Users from 1.5M to 3.9M today, a 160% Increase in the same time frame. Those numbers to me show solid company growth, and the quarterly financials reflected from this growth as Q1 Revenues were $882K, Q2 $1.04M, Q3 $1.49M, and Q4 is expected to exceed $1.7M as quoted by Golden Matrix. Those quarterlies show me that they have grown their revenues by nearly double in the year 2020. I'm expecting these revenues for last year will total approximately $5.1M+ and can do another easy double in 2021 if not more $10.2M+ On top of all this solid core growth GMGI has also been able to maintain profitability for the past nine consecutive quarters, while growing out their top end numbers. The gross profit last quarter (Q3) was 58% and the net income was only roughly $40K. In my opinion this is a good thing considering the competition GAN who trades in the Nasdaq, lost $4.1M during that same third quarter. Profit is profit, which is an complete rarity in this sector. I'm looking forward to seeing the Q4 numbers on or before the March 15th 2021 deadline.
Nasdaq Capital Markets
Golden Matrix filed an application to uplist onto the Nasdaq Capital Markets on August 27th 2020, and are still currently pending approval as it seems to be a very complicated and tedious task jumping all the way from OTC Pink Sheets to Nasdaq. Us GMGI long shareholders have seen many tasks from the company performed over the past 5+ months that come out in 8K filings, such as amending financial reports to Nasdaq formatting, and even creating a audit committee to meet qualifications just as of last week (01-26-21). As for now Golden Matrix is still a hidden gem as much of Wall Street doesn't know about GMGI or can't trade GMGI due to many buying restrictions. I think soon this will change and no longer be hidden with the arrival of up list.
Playtech and Golden Matrix Deals
Playtech and Golden Matrix went began a collaboration agreement around the end of November 2020 that is set to kickoff sometime this month (February). You can find this easily under recent GMGI news right on the company website. What the deal consists of is beneficial to both of them, as Golden Matrix newly designed and built a Esports betting app, Peer2P Betting Games, and a new Artificial Intelligence System (AI-X). Golden Matrix is letting Playtech PTEC.L use and distribute these applications and software exclusively to all of their new and future customers. Playtech is a market leader when it comes to gaming software and technology. Playtech granted non exclusive rights to distribute their most popular games including live dealer games, slots, table games, bingo, and poker to Golden Matrix's 450+ current operators throughout their APAC Region territories. This deal will be very beneficial for Golden Matrix as their foot print will reach the U.S. and European territories through Playtech, who is all over the world, and some states in the U.S. including very popular New Jersey. I expect we may see a significant increase in the top and bottom line growth for Golden Matrix through this significant collaboration deal.
Amelco Sports Betting Distribution Deal
One more recent larger deal was made with Amelco who's out of England U.K. and basically it gives Golden Matrix distribution rights of their premium sports betting software platform where they will offer it throughout their territories in the APAC Region to their 450+ Operators and future ones as well. I think this is a major deal because they will now become a stronger company by providing both Igaming and Sports Betting software vs just having igaming alone. I think this will not only attract more usage from the current 457+ operators and 3.9M end users, but will also have more future operators wanting to do new business with Golden Matrix being a dual distributor of both Igaming and Sports Betting. More customers equals more revenues, which is what we all want to see from any good growing company.
GMGI Obtained a European Gaming License
Golden Matrix recently acquired a Alderney Gaming License in which their CEO Brian Goodman sold to the company though another privately owned company that was holding this license. He sold this license at cost to Golden Matrix. From my understanding there's many benefits to owning this license, and it's not easy to obtain. Playtech their newly partner also holds this same gaming license, along with many other big name casinos. It seems as if GMGI will be expanding from just the APAC Region alone, and now into the European Region as well. Us shareholders didn't receive a lot info on the exact game plan, but it sounds like some expansion into the European Region. I'm looking forward to hearing more about their game plan hopefully in the near future. Europe is the largest gambling market in the whole world, and right under it is the Asia Pacific Region. Let's see what this European Alderney Gaming License has in store for us in the near future.
$5 Million Equity Investment
Just last week Golden Matrix announced they received a $5M equity investment from a strategic Swedish based gaming investor Knutsson Holdings AB. They purchased one million units which consists of 1M restricted shares at $5.00 USD each, and a warrant with a exercise price of $6.00 a share. They only can exercise the warrants once the GMGI share price exceeds $10 a share for a minimum of 10 consecutive trading days. This was all announced when we were trading around $5.50 a share and will only only dilute the outstanding share count from 21.7M shares to 22.7M shares (4.4%) which is minor. This deal brought me that much more confidence in GMGI, because not only did this investment firm valuate the company currently over $5 a share, but they know its worth more as they have been around the block dealing with gaming companies since 1963 (50+ years). They are also the largest shareholder of popular company NETENT who was recently acquired by Evolution Gaming, and are invested in many other gaming companies. Check them out. This deal puts GMGI outstanding shares to 22.7M with a super low share float that's under 12M shares and a low market cap around $116M USD while currently trading in the low $5 a share price range. Ask yourself this one question, if Knutsson Holdings doesn't even get to purchase their other 1M shares for $6M until the price exceeds $10 a share, don't you think they have good confidence GMGI will surpass this price in the near future? I very well believe so, as they have solid growth, and many new business deals into play for this Quarter (Q1) and beyond.
Possible Acquisitions On The Horizon
I personally have very high expectations for Golden Matrix this year including a up list approval onto the Nasdaq Capital Markets Exchange, major new revenue growth from the partnerships mentioned earlier, and of course building their core business stronger then ever. Also if you checkout all the last dozen press releases from the company, the CEO has mentioned several soon to be announced partnerships and possible synergistic acquisitions many times. Now with Golden Matrix sitting on a pile of cash on hand ($10M+) and staying profitable for the past nine consecutive quarters and counting, they could be in a great position to acquire something beneficial for the companies overall top and bottom line growth. I'm keeping my eyes peeled open short term to see what they do on their next move with $10M+ cash, no debt, and being cashflow positive, which is a rarity in this sector as most are bleeding millions of dollars in losses quarter after quarter! I believe with the current $116M Market Cap, 22.7M Outstanding shares, Low <12M share float and the anticipated future growth, this share price around $5.00 is undervalued and a true bargain BUY.
My Position
I hold a long position of GMGI here, and plan to continue holding for the next 3-5 years as the online gambling industry is expected to grow exponentially for quite some time with more and more legalization throughout the U.S. and many other locations. Online gambling will only continue to grow larger and larger yearly. Do some DD on GMGI and you may become a long shareholder like myself.
Note: All of the info provided above including financials can be found on the Golden Matrix website in the investors section.
WWW. GOLDENMATRIX .COM

So I was playing a 1/2 home game last night, and there was a guy there that used to deal at the casino before covid. He was very drunk. Quote "I drank half a fifth before I even got here m'fer!"
Anyways I win a medium sized pot and tip the dealer a dollar. He says something along the lines of "yeah zippy look at you tipping 1 dollar on a 60 dollar pot"
I'm like "what do you mean by that?"
"Well you aren't a good tipper."
"Ok well you're about to get no tips from me if the casino opens up"
This is the appropriate response right? Like fuckoff for putting me on blast in front of everyone. I tip $1 for pot 50-100, $2-3 for pots 100-200, and pots over 200 I usually tip $4-5.
He later walked it back with "well you're not bad, your like the mean"
It's just frustrating because I liked this dealer and then you learn they don't even appreciate your tips. Like tips are optional right? At any point I can just be like "nah". Sometimes I think people forget that.
Also I'm like usually a quiet and respectful player. I don't ever get mad at the dealers or blame them. If they make mistakes I like understand shit happens. Like yeah I'm not throwing 5 bucks at them every pot I win, but also I dont make their job any more difficult.

Ever since a Let’s Play got me into Stardew Valley, I’ve fallen in love with the world. It’s something special, a place to relax and get away from the world’s problems. Here, you can pay bills with the sweat of your own brow, make friends, fall in love, and can escape the drudgery of modern life. It’s magical in its own way.
I’ve played hundreds of hours over multiple save files. I’ve been wondering one thing just recently, however. I remember when I first asked Robin for house upgrades and the sheer bowel-emptying amount she asked for. Seriously? That much for a kitchen? Now that I haven’t left my house for the past several weeks, fear human contact, and have deep dived into the paranormal, I’m overthinking something constantly: with regards to modern housework, does Robin the carpenter over or under charge you for her work?
To figure this out, it’s going to require a fair bit of math and a lot of guesswork. I’m going to have to establish a lot of ground rules but I’m going to try and be as accurate to real world costs as I can. We need to learn four things:

• What year does the game take place so we can calculate accurate inflation?
• What is the square footage of the house and its upgrades?
• What is the exchange value of gold, the game’s currency?
• What is the cost of Robin’s labor?

Let’s tackle the first. To do this, I scoured around to look for modern conveniences. Primarily, I found these five:

• Leah mentions she has a laptop
• The carpentry shop sells Plasma screen TVs.
• There is what appears to be an old Apple computer monitor in Harvey’s clinic and Maru’s room.
• Sam has an electric guitar and what looks like a plasma screen computer monitor in his room.
• In Mr. Qi’s casino, the slot machines do not have a lever. This is important because that gives us a firm earliest date of 1963.

Another interesting factoid is the number of Cathode-ray TVs you see in Stardew Valley. These are the precursors to plasma screens, which were in turn succeeded by LCD screen TVs. Additionally, a large number of your starter houses comes preequipped with Cathode-ray TVs. Granted, this may be because the farmhouse was abandoned for many years before you came along, but there exists another such TV in 1 River Road where we often see George watching his shows. I will concede that George and Evelyn are quite old and may not have the tech savvy nature of Sebastian to get something more modern, so that can’t be an accurate measurement. Plus, Alex’s mental acumen is a little... questionable.
As for crafting recipes, there really isn’t anything worth talking about. Magic items I won’t talk about because it has no real world comparison; that also throws out the wizard shop’s items. The furniture catalog has nothing of note to pinepoint a date, and nor does Pierre’s General Store, Joja Mart, Joja Warehouse, the Blacksmith, Stardrop Saloon, or Marnie’s ranch. Leah doesn’t mention anything about her laptop, so that is of little help.
So the casino gives us a low bound. Although manufacturing of the plasma screen TV stopped in the US in 2014, plasma screen TVs were losing their market shares around 2007 and factories were shutting down. As you can buy them like hotcakes and fill a shed with them, 2007 is our upper bound.
The price for plasma screens was quite pricey for residential homes. 1995 was the year 42 inch plasma screens became commercial, and some had home installation priced somewhere around US$15,000. Still not quite the size of the queen or king sized bed you and your spouse have (the size of the plasma screen in the game), but sixty inch plasma screen TVs were sold around the year 2000, and that is plenty big. Given the size of the screen in the game is roughly three tiles just like your bed, I think it’s safe to say this is around the size of our estimate. Our rough year range is now 1995 to 2007. Let’s split the difference and say the game takes place in 2001.
We have our year.
To calculate the size of our farmhouse, we need some baseline measurement. Luckily, the game is pixelated so we can be quite accurate in our measurements. Unluckily, we have no confirmed height of anything, so we have to intuit some things. Reddit user asparagus made this excellent size chart, so while I can just use that and save myself a lot of work, let us do some measurements of our own and then measure the farmhouse with both this method and asparagus’ method.
First, there is the height of plants, but those can vary widely. For instance, you can pot prickly pear cactuses in your farmhouse, but their height can vary anywhere between one and seven feet. Plant height is a no go. The average height of a minifridge is forty three inches (109 cm) tall, so unless you are a dwarf, that’s not right either. The fences are also a good starting point, as most agricultural fencing stands at four feet (1.2 m).
Here we don’t have to do much; all fences are forty eight pixels in height. Four feet equals out to forty eight inches (121.92 cm). It doesn’t get more perfect than that!
Trigger warning: incoming math.
Now comes the really tricky part: getting the dimensions of each iteration of your farmhouse, and squinting at my computer screen like a mole in order to count pixels; we must include walls as well as that is included in square footage. Our first iteration has pixel measurements of 704x496. Add in the doorway (136x64pixels), and then we’ll still convert for square feet. 704 * 496 + (136 * 64) = 318,452 pixels/sq, which (dividing by 12^2) converts to 2,211.47 ft/sq. Damn, we’re well on our way for most modern mansions.
I have to have messed something up (205.45 m/sq, btw). The average firebox (the inside of a fireplace where you burn wood) tends to be around 32x20 inches (81.28x50.8 cm). Ours is... 72x40. Twice as large. I also haven’t even begun to calculate the farmhouse’s height because Robin is beginning to scare me.
Alright, new plan, we’re going with asparagus. I married Haley and took her measurements. She is 104 pixels tall, and since she is 65 inches (165.1 cm) according to asparagus, that gives us a measurement of .625 inches/pixel (1.5875 cm/pixel).
Side note, I really want some Twizlers right now.
So instead of having pixels as at a 1:1 ratio, we have something a little more lenient, but things are looking a little... grim. We’ll have to convert each individual amount, so we have (704 * .625) * (496 * .625) + ((136 * 64) * .625^2) for 124,395.31 inches/sq, 863.86 ft/sq., 80.25 m/sq. But still, we haven’t even begun to calculate the actual volume of our farmhouse yet, so these numbers are going to explode.
I’m beginning to think Robin is Hestia. Yoba is not the only deity in this town.
Alright, calculating the rest of the floor spaces is a little boring so let’s speedrun this.
Wall height for the farmhouse is 140 pixels, so (140 * .625) * 124,395.31 inches/sq / 12^3 = 6,298.95 ft^3 (178.36 m^3) for the farmhouse, and 25,800.51 ft^3 (730.58 m^3) using my method.
Just... let’s move on.
Second iteration has me doing a fair bit more work.
Wall height is 135 pixels, and rightmost—wait, the walls are shorter? Weird. Anyway, the rightmost room has dimensions of 486 for width by 375 for depth (and the same cubby dimensions), giving us cuboid dimensions of 24,603,750 pixels^3, which converts to 14,238.28 ft^3 (403.18 m^3), and 3,476.14 ft^3 (82.83 m^3) using asparagus' method
Middle corridor has a dimensional width of 42 pixels by 87 depth, giving us a total of 285.47 ft^3 (8.08 m^3), and 69.69 ft^3 (1.97 m^3) using asparagus' method.
Leftmost room (the kitchen) has a width of 870 and depth of 375, with a doorway of 136x64. That gives us a cuboid area of 314,019.38 ft^3 (29,173.11 m^3), and 6,388.74 ft^3 (180.91 m^3) using asparagus' method.
That gives us a grand total for a tier two home of...
... 328,543.13 ft^3 (29,584.37 m^3) using my method and
... 9,934.58 ft^3 (281.31 m^3) using asparagus' method.
So Robin added at a minimum 3,635.63 cubic feet to your house in three days by herself. Even if you extend the days and months to roughly align with our own calendar, that would be a mere nine days. How much powdered starfruit did she snort in order to do that by herself? I 100% believe Emily is the town’s dealer. I didn’t even calculate the length of the farmhouse loft. It’s doable, and even though you can’t enter it in the game, a bigger farmhouse means a bigger loft judging by the look of it.
Anyway, I’m not going to calculate the loft area right now. I’m not going to calculate the other tiers of your farmhouse either, even though that was my intent when I started this analysis. The math is easy enough, but it gets boring to type, and no doubt to read. Plus, I’m a little stunned by Robin's carpentry acumen. C’mon Robin, stop upgrading my house. Exercise with the girls, dance with your husband, smoke some weed, I dunno, RELAX.
But in a strange way, it makes a weird sort of sense. Pretty much no one plays the game with auto-run turned off, but do so for a moment. See how fast you move. That is your normal pace, and auto-run is you, an Olympian god, sprinting around town every second of every day, helping the shit out of everyone whether they want it or not, snorting the same starfruit mixture you got from Robin to keep going, who may have gotten it from Linus (my money is still on Emily). We’ve become so accustomed to seeing the run animation as our default I almost didn’t realize it doesn’t translate to modern life. The boards in your house, I almost took those as your normal 2x4 planks of wood (which actually measure 1.5x3.5, the world lies to me). They are not. They are almost the width of your entire body, and your walking pace (sorry I can’t get an exact pixel measurement) covers roughly one and a half boards, a similar length to a normal human gait. The art style fooled even me until now, but your house is massive.
Let’s just answer our other two questions. What is the exchange rate? Calculating the exchange rate of a fictional world is always tricky as they have different concepts of rarities, but I’ll give it the ol’ college try. Once again, I can’t do anything with magic. Let’s first list some things of note:

• Iridium is fairly easy to get around Stardew Valley once you are able, and that is a rare and valuable metal, with a current price of US$1,510 per troy ounce.
• You can purchase a golden column to place on your farm, and gold has a current price of US$1,643 per troy ounce
• Conversely, while the first two are rare and valuable metals, crops such as corn are valued at prices like 150g, a very unusually high amount if exchanged 1:1 to USA dollars.
• Going back to plasma screen TVs, we can use its price history and then convert currencies to Stardew Valley gold.

Now you may be tempted to say we can’t translate iridium and gold’s prices to real world market values, and normally you may be right, but there are some extenuating circumstances in the game: the town is right next to two very large mines. It is even a plot point once you clear the glittering boulder that the water carries ore from deep inside the mountain. Yes, gold and iridium are valuable, but your location to ore veins is important; gold and iridium may be uncommon resources but you have access to very specific places where they are more common, otherwise known as the scarcity heuristic). This also explains two facts about iridium: discounting magic, iridium is quite rare in the game, just like real life. Secondly, Clint’s prices make a lot more sense not only because it’s endgame material, but because iridium is super dense and has a very high melting point, thus making it a very difficult material to work with.
But by far the biggest challenge of this question is figuring out whether or not items you produce factor in the cost of your labor or not. For instance, lace is made of simple materials that even in the days of Victorian England, it was easy to get. However because lace was so time consuming to make, it could command absurd prices. Thus, one of the first things we need to discover is whether or not the game takes into account cost of labor or not.
So I am going to take you all back to school and talk about someone who’s old and dead: Adam Smith. It was he who talked about the cost of labor in his book The Wealth of Nations, and because of that, I bring up this particular line:

“...From century to century, corn is a better measure than silver, because, from century to century, equal quantities of corn will command the same quantity of labour more nearly than equal quantities of silver.”

Why did I mention corn above? This is why. Prices may vary, but agriculture has been around for thousands of years and the cost of a farmer’s labor equals about the same.
According to Dylan Baumann, Stardew Valley corn plants have a profit value of 535 gold per plant. Our corn plant profits are about as high as they can get without adding something new into the mix, and we don’t want that yet.
Let’s set some ground rules:

• Cultivatable farm space on the standard farm equals out to 3,427 spaces, but we’ll round that down to 3,350 for iridium sprinklers, iridium watering can, and scarecrows, equaling maximum farming with no loss of crop.
• We’ll keep Dylan’s ground rules, so no fertilizer.
• No preserves, jams, wine, and juices.
• No farming efficiencies and crop selling bonuses.
• No use of the greenhouse to grow crops outside of the growing season.

If you plant the entire farm with corn and stop harvesting on Fall day 28 when the growing season ends, that lets you harvest a total of 11 ears of corn per plant. Multiply that by 3,350, we get a total of 36,850 ears of corn for your entire farm. Corn is measured in bushels, and a bushel of corn can be anywhere between 40 and 60 ears of corn, but we’ll say you really pack it in for 60, meaning your growing season for corn produces 36,850 / 60 corn for a total of 614.17 bushels per year.
The USDA has a 2001 labor value of corn at US$2.92 per acre (and that matches the Iowa labor statistic), and using 156 bushels per acre, that brings our labor cost per bushel at... US$00.02. That’s a real pittance. Considering bushels of corn retailed around $2.11 per bushel in 2001, that is an incredible markup of 184.85 times.
We’re almost done with the dreaded math, I swear.
Corn retails at 100g apiece in Stardew Valley(You get 50 gold from Pierre, so he has a 100% markup), meaning the labor cost should be around 184.85 times less that amount, meaning it takes about 0.54 gold to make one ear of corn.
Your average US farmers salary $55,000 and $100,000, and we’ll take the middle of $77,500 for our measurements. Dividing the farmer’s salary by the total ears of corn our farmer grows in Stardew Valley, we get a labor cost per ear of corn in US dollars of $2.10 per ear of corn. Now we multiply this by our markup ratio to get the IRL retail cost of corn in Stardew, getting US$237.08! Damn that better be some good eating! We divide that number by the Stardew Valley retail cost of corn, netting us a real world conversion of gold of, drumroll please, $2.37 US dollars per gold in 2001.
Now just for funzies, let us calculate the actual salary of your famer in Stardew Valley. Multiplying your 36,850 ears of corn by 50 gold (your selling price of gold, not the retail price of 100g), that nets you 1,842,500 gold per growing season. Multiply that by the dollagold conversion we just calculated and your real life gross income comes out to be US$436,672,500.
Give me all of the golden clocks, wizard.
Three questions down, one more to go. Currency conversion was rather tricky because it involved quite a lot of math, but this last question, what is the cost of Robin’s labor, that requires the most assumptions. There’s an easy answer and a hard answer.
Robin’s upgrades, except for the last, require you the farmer to give her resources in addition to gold. The simple answer is you are providing materials in order to keep the raw gold cost down. This means that the first house upgrade, 10,000 gold, is strictly her labor cost as the 450 wood is all the raw materials she needs to build. 3 days * 3 months (to adjust Stardew month lengths to our month lengths) comes out to Robin working an IRL equivalent to 9 days. Taking 10,000 gold / 9 days equals a cost of 1,111.111 gold per day, and considering Robin has snorted enough powdered starfruit to have 20 hour work days, that comes out to 55.56 gold per hour.
Just to be sure, let’s see if the math holds up for the last upgrade. That one requires a cost of 100,000 gold and comes preequipped with 33 casks. You do not provide the resources for the casks, meaning that comes included with the cost. Casks cannot be sold, but the materials required to make them are 20 wood and 1 hardwood, which Robin will provide for the same 100% markup (meaning 4 gold and 30 gold respectively). 4 gold * 30 gold * 33 casks comes out to 3,960 gold. Using the same calculations for the first house iteration, we get (100,000 gold - 3,960) / (3 days * 3 months) / 20 hours for a total of 533.56 gold per hour.
Not even close to our first estimate. We could just average them together for (533.56 + 55.56) / 2 = 294.56 gold, and that would be the easy answer. It would be nice to settle for the easy answer.
Let’s find the hard answer. We are going to calculate labor cost per square footage, and luckily most of the work has been done over the course of several google spreadsheets. To find the cost of materials and money per upgrade volume we get the formula (Upgrade volume - Base Volume) / 10,000 gold. This gives us a grand total of cubic material built per gold of...
...2,573.26 in^3/gold, 30.27 ft^3/gold, 2.89 m^3/gold using my method and
...628.24 in^3/gold, 0.36 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Let’s see if the math holds up for the basement upgrade and dammit I just realized I got to do more pixel measurements now. Hold on, be back in an hour.
Alright, I’m back. We don’t need to do any subtraction for the previous volume of the house considering the cellar is its own little area, but we still need to subtract the value of the materials used for the casks. The cellar comes out to a grand total of cubic materials built per gold of...
...386.91 in^3/gold, 0.22 ft^3/gold, 0.01 m^3/gold using my method and
...94.46 in^3/gold, 0.05 ft^3/gold, 0.0015 m^3/gold using asparagus’ method.
Huge discrepancy.
Before I get into my reasoning why, let us outline what we know first.

• We’re pretty sure the game takes place in 2001.
• We have the exact sizes of each house upgrade calculated with two different methods.
• We have a certified exchange rate of US$2.37 at that point in time.
• We have two different methods of calculating the cost of Robin’s labor.
• The amount of work Robin does during her three(nine?) day job is absolutely obscene.

I come to one conclusion: Robin is a god that has settled down in the world of Stardew Valley.
Here me out. I have three pieces of evidence.
The first is when Robin is hired to take on a house upgrade job no one helps her, not even her husband Demetrius. Your house is right next to hers, so you’re not paying for travel. As we have shown by our calculations above and in the gDoc spreadsheet, that is a massive amount of work. It’s simply not possible for a human to accomplish such a monumental task. Robin claims she built her own home herself with this line from the game...

“Have I told you that I built our house from the ground up? It's definitely been the highlight of my career so far.”

...so we know her carpentry acumen is impressive enough for the job, but she has severely understated her skill. Homeadvisor pegs a house costing anywhere between US$150,000 to US$500,000 (US$102,005.53 to $340,018.44, adjusted for 2001 inflation), but even adjusted for inflation, Robin absolutely underbids the current housing market. Those inflation adjusted values, when converted to gold, come out to a range of 43,040.31g-143,467.70g. Granted, these prices are for a complete house, not adding onto a current house, but even if we half the value you are getting one hell of a discount.
The second piece is Robin’s language. The sheer passion for her work speaks wonders..

“Wood is a wonderful substance... it's versatile, cheap, strong, and each piece has its own unique character!”

...but perhaps she is just passionate about what she does. Many people are, but knowing what we do about how dirt cheap and blindingly fast she works let’s go into more detail about some things, specifically three lines. The first...

“Our little plan worked out well, don't you think? Pam and Penny seem really happy.”

...is said after Pam’s house undergoes an upgrade. “Our” plan? Sure, you are the one that buys the upgrade and Robin has to build it, but I can’t help but feel there is a double meaning behind this language. It is done out of the kindness of Robin’s heart and the materials have to come from somewhere, so she can’t do it for free, but it wasn’t about the money, as we have stated previously. It was about Penny.
Pam is a somewhat contentious person because of slobbish and slovenly nature. She is immediately and irrationally angered when Penny tries to pick the place up. She drinks heavily...

“\sigh*... My mother definitely has a problem with going to the saloon too much. But it's best not to dwell on bad things, right?”*

...doesn’t seem to understand not paying her tab has some consequences, and doesn’t realize what her habits have done to her daughter’s psyche.
Then you, the player come along. Pam is okay with the simple things in life, but you help Penny with her worries and insecurities, and then with you and Robin together, you give Penny everything she needs to help her shed those worries. She has a house that doesn have problems with rain, two friends who look out for her, her mom has a job, and most importantly she has peace of mind and in a world fraught with problems, that is truly priceless.
Then there is this line...

“Hey! I heard some weird noises last night, and woke up this morning to find the quarry bridge completely repaired! It's a miracle of woodworking!”

...and it occurs once you offer items to the community center junimos to get the quarry bridge repaired.
It is also a bald-faced lie.
The junimos are good, don’t get me wrong, but we’ve seen what Robin can do with our own two eyes. She is absolutely incredible at her job, and while I may give it to her she has no idea what junimos are or what they are capable of, we have proof that the act of restoring the bridge in one night is not out of the realm of possibility for her. A miracle, yes, but I’m certain she can beat the junimos’ time.
Lastly, there is one quote from her that is just... it opens up some very interesting questions. When she says...

“My parents were bewildered when I told them I wanted to be a carpenter. They were pretty old-fashioned.”

...how old are her parents when they consider carpentry too new-fashioned for them? Carpentry is one of the world’s oldest professions. If they were old-fashioned, why were they bewildered?
This line is just so fascinating to me. Robin is incredibly skilled, but I cannot rationalize carpentry being too newfangled for parents to wrap their head around. Who were they? Where are they from? I know your secrets, Robin, I know your parents are gods, too.
The third and final piece is the contrasting pieces of the world at large. Just like ours, it’s a little depressing. Joja Corp runs dozens of what even Cyberpunk would consider a dataslave farm. The world is flooded with consumerism run amok, Orwellian surveillance, and rampant urbanization. The Ferngill Republic is in the middle of a war with the Gotoro Empire and Kent still suffers PTSD from being in a prisoner of war camp.
Stardew Valley isn’t just a town to retire in, it is a place of respite and healing. There are three confirmed magic users deeply tied to the town’s mystical roots. The bears speak and encourage you to manage the world around you. You are rewarded for restoring balance to the valley by being able to recycle things you don’t need. Your main resource in the game, gold, also doesn’t matter that much; if it ever slips into the negative, nothing bad ever happens. You must just work to raise it back up. There is no lose condition in the game.
In many respects it is similar to the Gaiaism philosophy that all living beings are connected, each relying and depending on each other in order to maintain a peaceful coexistence. You help Shane with his nihilism and depression, Sebastian with his ability to express and accept affection, Sam with his dreams, Kent with his problems, Leah with her ambitions, Haley with her generosity and narcissism, or even simple goals like Penny’s idea of a quiet domestic life.
Whether it is the addicted, lost, or scorned, everyone is welcome and everyone can have a home in Stardew Valley. No one embodies this more than Robin who just wants a simple life. Whether it is her own house or her own boat during the Dance of the Moonlight Jellies, Robin builds it herself. The feel of wood grain, the smell of lacquer, the stickiness of stain, the thrum of the saw, and the bite of the axe. Robin doesn’t charge you nearly enough for your house upgrades because it is not about the money. Woodworking is what she loves and she lives in a place where barterism, kindness, family, and friendship substitute so many of life's modern problems and inconveniences.
Friendship increases in the game aren’t just a measurement of achievements, a means of getting more recipes, or more candles lit on a grave. You are making friends and getting to know these people for who they are and everyone’s life is bettered because of it. The amount of love I’ve seen for Linus is just staggering. Shane, in all of his melancholy and despite him not being a suitor in the original version of the game, is loved by so many. I know some despise Haley, but I love that I was able to show her what kindness can do for people.
You are in a gentle and loving place, and you are loved.
What a better place for a god to reside? A quiet town filled with peace and love, seeped in nature and the old magics of yore. A loving mate, a family to raise. Land to share with those that forage from its bounty. It’s all she needs.
Robin’s role in all of this? She desires neither worship nor admiration. She is just a friend. A god, certainly, but a friend first and foremost who is just settling down in a quiet town looking for a little peace.
​
https://preview.redd.it/vxedrolha3w51.png?width=507&format=png&auto=webp&s=d109cc65b008db74dc4ef74d20083c6eeb2cfc60
Image by MagicallyClueless

I'm a table games dealer for a casino in California in a county with the second most Covid cases in the entire state. Our Casino, and every other one in California is just choosing to ignore the shut down and curfew mandates and remain open. But don't worry all of our guests have chin diapers on and will be served about 19 cocktails during their time there with us. We've also made it so when you're on a slot machine you're at least 1 and half feet away from the next guy and if you're playing tables you're at least 2 feet apart and playing with chips they haven't been cleaned or sanitized since the doors opened 20+ years ago. And don't worry if we catch you without a mask or with it down since every guest has 1 million strikes until they're out.
Casino's are probably the most non essential business in history and yet they refuse to close or do ANYTHING to help the spread. Our employees are actually told not to say anything if they have Covid. Our pit boss was just out for 3 weeks and when he came back all he could say was "I was sick" but we can get in major trouble if we tell guests that. This is fucking ridiculous and gross.
And to top it off, we're extending hours for the holidays since, and I quote, "We won't close, Thanksgiving is the busiest time of the year!"
Casinos will literally kill their employees before closing and losing a dollar of their millions and millions and its the grossest thing I've ever seen.

This post started out as a comment for this thread, but then it got long and I decided it warranted its own post. It's about what to do when people stare you down and say things like "I think you have AK."
I love when people do this. The person is rarely if ever being honest, and most often looking for a reaction. Similar statements include "I'm thinking of calling," "I don't feel like you have anything here," or the classic "I don't know if I can fold this."
There are basically three levels of livetell training one can have. Either untrained, classically trained, or scientifically trained.
Untrained ranges from your online player who's mixing in live games to your rank novices and even includes some livegame veterans who actually ignore their opponents for some reason. These players will often have heard generalized advice about what to look for, but you can generally assume these players don't have any kind of system in place. If you don't have a system in place, then all you have is what's called a "calling reflex." Players want to call, because they want to win. They will look for something to convince them to call. Doing anything -- smiling, laughing, looking angry, fidgeting, receiving a phone call from your mother, they'll be looking for a way to interpret it as "that means he's weak."
What to do if an untrained player says this: If an untrained player says "I'm thinking of calling" or something similar (it's usually more aggressive like "I think you just have ace high" or "I feel like you're bluffing here"), they're looking for a reaction. If you want a call, do something. Anything. Touch your face (except not now, because COVID). Shrug. Smile awkwardly. Check your cards again. Shift your weight in your seat. Make a jerk-off motion with your hand. Scream out loud and then try to hide under the table. Doesn't matter if it's weak or strong, but things actually work best if they look less deliberate. Any of these things, though, can trigger a calling reflex. If you want them to fold, don't change anything. Pretend you didn't hear them. Wait for the dealer to tell you that you've won.
Classically trained means anyone who's read one of many hundreds of books on poker tells and/or has played a fair amount of live poker. You'll recognize experience and attention to poker tells by someone who's "standardized" their poker behavior. They often try to look at their cards the same way every time. They often try to use the same hand to act. If they use a card protector or a chip on their cards, they try to do so every single hand. Most poker pros have the same advice for how to avoid giving off tells, and players that follow this advice have usually heard advice on how to find tells, as well. The advice they've heard is almost always the same -- "Strong means weak. Weak means strong."
Players like these are more likely to call you when you announce your bets and raises loudly, or throw your chips in. They're less likely to call a carefully-placed bet done silently. They think you'll stare at them when you're weak and look away when you're strong. They're looking for all these behaviors. However, when they say something to you in a big spot, they're usually not looking for any of these things. You have to know what they're looking for and what they're thinking before you can really know how to respond.
Most modern tell books and even some old ones (like Mike Caro's book) recognize the difference between what's now called controlled and uncontrolled behavior. Controlled behavior is what you choose to do -- you choose to throw your chips in aggressively, to puff your chest out, etc. These are the behaviors that follow the "weak means strong and strong means weak" rule, and because they're controlled, they're the ones that classically trained players are least trusting of. They're the most common "tells", but also the least-reliable. Someone who's read the same book could easily be doing the opposite. So they look for the uncontrolled tells. The quick, automatic glance at your chips when you have a big hand. The way your hands shake a little when you hit a monster. The partially-concealed smile when they sound like they're going to fold. They've also read, or heard, that if they stare you down longer, they often will get a reaction after 20-30 seconds that they wouldn't if they acted faster. One of the most common questions they ask is "If I fold, will you show?" This has two objectives -- first, to see if you react positively to the concept of folding or are willing to offer something to get them to fold. Players with strong hands often immediately say "no." Second, because they want to see as many hands as possible to see if they're right. These players have a system and they'll follow it until you prove them wrong, so obviously never ever show them your hand unless you've reached showdown and have to.
What to do if a classically trained player says this: If they say something implying you're weak? They're probably thinking of folding. They're looking for a positive knee-jerk reaction. They're ready to fold if you smile (especially if you try to stop or cover it), if you look at your chips, or if you somehow look more comfortable. Speaking back is a mixed bag. Saying anything makes you seem comfortable -- one of the most commonly-quoted rules is "speech means the nuts." Of course, because they said they're thinking of calling you, a lot of players will speak deliberately to change their mind, saying something like "Well if you think I'm weak, you should call," which some books will advise as weak. This is why controlled behavior is less-trustworthy, both for them to read and for you to use to get them to do what you want. You don't know what books they read or what they believe, so it's best to rely on convincingly dropping some "uncontrolled" behavior. (This is also why they're more likely to say something that sounds weak, like "If I fold, will you show?" Some books advise this to make players who speak in response more reliably strong, although almost all consider the offer to show cards to be weak.)
So if a classically trained player says they think you're weak, they're looking for comfort. If you want them to call or raise, the best thing to do is to look like you're trying to seem comfortable, but aren't. If you catch yourself smiling reflexively, don't hide it -- force it bigger. Make it seem more fake. But generally, the best thing to do is to be as still as possible, hold your breath for a bit, then "break." Start breathing again, shift in your chair, make eye contact with them, force a smile... the big gun is to touch your cards. NOT to look at them, like there's anything worth looking at there. To simply touch them. When players are considering whether to call or fold a big bet, one of the things they often do before they fold is to touch their cards, and classically trained players know this. They'll often raise you with nothing if you do this.
If you want them to fold, just be comfortable. If it helps, know that they're usually saying something to you -- anything, really -- because they're thinking of folding. You've already won, so relax. Don't hold your breath or try to hold still. Don't even worry too much about seeming nervous. The more you're willing to engage, the more afraid to call you your opponent will be. One thing that has literally never failed for me when getting one of these players to fold is to stare at them for a second and then say, in mock seriousness: "Now, I don't know everything, sure, but correct me if I'm wrong here, because I've heard it both ways... I believe that putting nipples on a butt does not make it boobs. What are your thoughts?" That won't work for everyone, but basically, classically-trained players are warned that such behavior doesn't come from players who are afraid of being called.
Scientifically-trained players are few and far between. It's expensive and rarely cost-effective to learn how to actually find tells. The reality is, classical poker tells training is easier to learn, easier to implement (requires less concentration) and is usually effective enough to get by when combined with sound poker strategy. Actual scientific training can cost thousands, requires serious dedication and takes a lot longer. Rather than looking for general rules of thumb and common tells, scientific training involves watching an individual player, cataloging his behavior over time and in various situations, and then trying to come up with a strategy and implement it. A scientifically-trained player will say, "This player looks like he's got a fair amount of table experience and has somewhat standardized all his actions. He waits till his turn to act before checking his cards every time. He'll check his cards, usually looking at them for about 1 second, then plays with his chips with his right hand before placing a chip on his cards and finally calling or raising. Three times, he called or raised before putting a chip on his cards, then remembered to put one on after. All three times, he showed a premium hand of AK or better."
These kinds of live tells can be incredibly powerful if properly exploited, but obviously, collecting that kind of information is time-consuming and requires a lot of focus. Generally, the advice for playing against these players is not to worry about them. First, you're so rarely going to encounter one, and they're not unlike card-counters in blackjack -- they may very well have a system in place, but that doesn't mean they know how to execute it. For every successful card-counting blackjack player, there are three or four who learned a little about it but aren't good enough to actually make money. If anyone's interested in how to get such training, they can PM me and I can give them some information, but keep in mind that it takes long hours of study AND a significant course fee, and for most people, I wouldn't recommend it.
If you actually WERE sitting at a table with a strong player with good scientific training on how to spot tells, you still wouldn't have to worry too much. That kind of training means you can only really watch three or four players, so selecting profitable targets is the first step. When I sit down, I'm looking for someone who 1) gets into a lot of pots, so knowing whether they're strong is more worthwhile, 2) has somewhat standardized behavior and generally stays still, so things like breath rate and blink rate are easier to watch for, 3) always checks their cards at the same time -- preferably when its their first turn to act 4) looks like they have a reasonable understanding of poker (often, I'll reference a name like Phil Galfond or Fedor Holz and see if they recognize the name, as this is a good indicator of how intently they study the game). So for a lot of players, you won't be playing the playstyle that I'm looking for anyway. If you are, you can turn me off by checking your cards at a different time in the hand -- not as soon as you get the cards, but while it's someone else's turn to act, and my attention might be elsewhere. Also, the more mercurial you are in your actions, the more differences in behaviors I observe, the harder it is to watch you. Some behaviors mean something, and some mean nothing, so the more "noise" there is, the longer it'll take me to observe you. I prefer to play against casino regulars whom I can observe over long sessions (or, most ideally, several long sessions) and so can exploit productively long-term.
If a scientifically-trained player says he thinks you just have ace-high, he's definitely fishing for a response, but most of the time, he's already made a decision. Usually in this spot you want to treat him like a classically-trained player, because he's either got you figured out or he doesn't. If he does, just don't try to bluff him so often. Introducing more noise once he knows what to look for is rarely effective. The main benefit behind scientific training is that it's pretty reliable once you know what you're looking for on a specific player, so if someone's genuinely got you figured out, it's probably not profitable to play against him. You can try to figure out what you're doing wrong and do it differently, but you'll usually just be guessing, and that's hit-or-miss. Mostly miss.
But yeah, for every player who's actually able to find individual tells on you, there are literal thousands who can't and won't, so most of the time, when you hear probing speech play, it's an opportunity. The player's looking for something to influence his decision, and figuring out what he's looking for is key in getting him to do what you want.

On the recent posts about the FBI documents regarding white supremacists infiltrating the police (ShockedPikachuFace.jpg), people were mentioning how cheeto probably has a set of gilded white hooded robes in his closet, then I happened to come across this info in another comments section (thanks u/CarlSpencer), which just solidifies that assumption, and I thought it was worth sharing (not that anyone here still has any doubt, but it might be good info to show someone who somehow still does, and is willing to hear it):
1973: The US Department of Justice — under the Nixon administration, out of all administrations — sued the Trump Management Corporation for violating the Fair Housing Act. Federal officials found evidence that Trump had refused to rent to Black tenants and lied to Black applicants about whether apartments were available, among other accusations. Trump said the federal government was trying to get him to rent to welfare recipients. In the aftermath, he signed an agreement in 1975 agreeing not to discriminate to renters of color without admitting to previous discrimination.
1980s: Kip Brown, a former employee at Trump’s Castle, accused another one of Trump’s businesses of discrimination. “When Donald and Ivana came to the casino, the bosses would order all the black people off the floor,” Brown said. “It was the eighties, I was a teenager, but I remember it: They put us all in the back.”
1989: In a controversial case that’s been characterized as a modern-day lynching, four Black teenagers and one Latino teenager — the “Central Park Five” — were accused of attacking and raping a jogger in New York City. Trump immediately took charge in the case, running an ad in local papers demanding, “BRING BACK THE DEATH PENALTY. BRING BACK OUR POLICE!” The teens’ convictions were later vacated after they spent seven to 13 years in prison, and the city paid $41 million in a settlement to the teens. But Trump in October 2016 said he still believes they’re guilty, despite the DNA evidence to the contrary.
1991: A book by John O’Donnell, former president of Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino in Atlantic City, quoted Trump’s criticism of a Black accountant: “Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. … I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.” Trump later said in a 1997 Playboy interview that “the stuff O’Donnell wrote about me is probably true.”
1992: The Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino had to pay a $200,000 fine because it transferred Black and women dealers off tables to accommodate a big-time gambler’s prejudices.
1993: In congressional testimony, Trump said that some Native American reservations operating casinos shouldn’t be allowed because “they don’t look like Indians to me.”
2000: In opposition to a casino proposed by the St. Regis Mohawk tribe, which he saw as a financial threat to his casinos in Atlantic City, Trump secretly ran a series of ads suggesting the tribe had a “record of criminal activity [that] is well documented.”
2004: In season two of The Apprentice, Trump fired Kevin Allen, a Black contestant, for being overeducated. “You’re an unbelievably talented guy in terms of education, and you haven’t done anything,” Trump said on the show. “At some point you have to say, ‘That’s enough.’”
2005: Trump publicly pitched what was essentially The Apprentice: White People vs. Black People. He said he “wasn’t particularly happy” with the most recent season of his show, so he was considering “an idea that is fairly controversial — creating a team of successful African Americans versus a team of successful whites. Whether people like that idea or not, it is somewhat reflective of our very vicious world.”
2010: In 2010, there was a huge national controversy over the “Ground Zero Mosque” — a proposal to build a Muslim community center in Lower Manhattan, near the site of the 9/11 attacks. Trump opposed the project, calling it “insensitive,” and offered to buy out one of the investors in the project. On The Late Show With David Letterman, Trump argued, referring to Muslims, “Well, somebody’s blowing us up. Somebody’s blowing up buildings, and somebody’s doing lots of bad stuff.”
2011: Trump played a big role in pushing false rumors that Obama — the country’s first Black president — was not born in the US. He claimed to send investigators to Hawaii to look into Obama’s birth certificate. Obama later released his birth certificate, calling Trump a “carnival barker.” The research has found a strong correlation between birtherism, as the conspiracy theory is called, and racism. But Trump has reportedly continued pushing this conspiracy theory in private.
2011: While Trump suggested that Obama wasn’t born in the US, he also argued that maybe Obama wasn’t a good enough student to have gotten into Columbia or Harvard Law School, and demanded Obama release his university transcripts. Trump claimed, “I heard he was a terrible student. Terrible. How does a bad student go to Columbia and then to Harvard?”
source

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 72%. (I'm a bot)

Well, actually, your Trump Tower neigh­bors are as likely to be Medicaid cheats, coke dealers, mobsters, or those who may have gotten a touch too friendly with mobsters.
The Justice Department's Organized Crime Strike Force questioned Trump about information it had received indicating that the union leader had strong-armed him and won a commitment for an apartment in Trump Tower in exchange for labor peace during its construction... ...While there's no evidence that Polo, the Weinbergs, or Bogatin were person­ally close to Trump, other felon resi­dents were.
Convicted cocaine dealer Joe Weichselbaum, whose helicopter company serviced the Trump casinos, didn't move into the two adjoining apartments his girlfriend bought for $2.4 million until he got out of federal prison in 1989.
The mysterious Weichselbaum-who was so friendly with Donald he was gossiping with his parole officer about Marla Maples well before her association with Donald ever hit the newspapers-rented an apart­ment owned by Donald in Trump Plaza, paying half its $7000 a month rent in bartered copter service.
Finally, there was Robert Hopkins, a Lucchese crime family associate, who was arrested in his Trump Tower suite for ordering a mob murder of a gam­bling competitor.
State investigators maintained a tap on his Trump Tower phone for months, concluding that he "Controlled the enterprise" from the tower apartments.

Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Trump^#1 Tower^#2 Donald^#3 apartment^#4 Cody^#5
Post found in /politics.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.

Based on the rhetoric of the 2016 Trump campaign, numerous racially charged tweets, anti-immigrant policies, and even the lack of diversity within his own staff, it doesn't seem surprising to say that Donald Trump is a bigot.
Bear in mind that this will be quite long. It'll be broken down into three categories: pre-presidency, 2016 candidacy, and presidency. I should note that this post won't contain everything, so at the end I'll add other compilations of his remarks towards different groups.

Pre-Presidency

The 1970s:

• 1973 - Under the Nixon administration, the Dept. of Justice sued Trump Management Co. for violating the Fair Housing Act; evidence showed that Trump had refused to rent to black tenants and lied to black applicants about whether apartments were available. Trump fought the suit, claiming the federal government was "forcing him to rent to welfare recipients" and that if he gave in, a "massive fleeing from the city of not only our tenants, but communities as a whole" would occur.
  • In 1975, an agreement was signed stating Trump would not discriminate against renters of color. (Of course, Trump never admitted to being guilty.)
  • [Original headline for this story.]
• 1978 - The federal government filed a motion for supplemental relief, charging the Trump company because of failure to comply with the 1975 agreement. Roy M. Cohn, a lawyer for the company, stated “The Trumps performed so perfectly under two‐year consent decree, which expired last June, that the Government made no move to extend it. Today's motion is nothing more than a rehash of complaints by a couple of planted malcontents, not'. one of which has the slightest merit.” It is unclear what happened with the government's request for further action.

The 1980s

• “When Donald and Ivana came to the casino, the bosses would order all the black people off the floor,” said Kip Brown, former employee at Trump's Castle in Atlantic City, NJ. “It was the eighties, I was a teenager, but I remember it: They put us all in the back.”
• 1988 - Donald Trump was invited to Lehigh University to give a commencement speech. He spent much of his time attacking countries such as Japan of "stripping the United States of economic dignity."
• 1989 - The Central Park Five were accused of attacking and raping a jogger in New York City. Donald Trump took charge in this case and ran an ad in the papers demanding, “BRING BACK THE DEATH PENALTY. BRING BACK OUR POLICE!” Trump claims that this had nothing to do with race; rather, he has been a big believer of the death penalty for horrendous crime.

The 1990s

• 1991 - John O'Donnell, former president of Trump Plaza Hotel & Casino, quoted Trump's criticism of a black accountant:“Black guys counting my money! I hate it. The only kind of people I want counting my money are short guys that wear yarmulkes every day. …I think that the guy is lazy. And it’s probably not his fault, because laziness is a trait in blacks. It really is, I believe that. It’s not anything they can control.”
  • In a 1997 Playboy interview, Trump said that “the stuff O’Donnell wrote about me is probably true.”
• 1992 - In order to accommodate a gambler's prejudices, the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino transferred black and women dealers off the tables. Trump Plaza was ordered to pay a $200,000 fine.
• 1993 - During a congressional testimony, Donald Trump said that some Native American reservations operating casinos should not be allowed because "they don't look like Indians to me."

The 2000s

• 2000 - Trump secretly ran attack ads against the St. Regis Mohawk tribe, suggesting that they had a “record of criminal activity [that] is well documented.” He saw the tribe - and their proposed casino - as a threat to his casinos in Atlantic City. The ad campaign warned that Indian casinos would bring evils such as "increased crime, broken families, bankruptcies and, in the case of the Mohawks, violence.”
  • The ads came from a grassroots anti-gambling group called the New York Institute for Law and Society created and run by longtime Trump friend and consultant, Roger Stone.
  • Here are some of the ads used by Trump and Roger Stone. ('Roger - this could be good!")
• 2004 - Trump fired Kevin Allen, a black contestant on season two of The Apprentice, for being overeducated. “You’re an unbelievably talented guy in terms of education, and you haven’t done anything,” Trump said on the show. “At some point you have to say ‘That’s enough.'”
• 2005 - Because Trump wasn't particularly happy with the latest season of The Apprentice, he pitched "an idea that is fairly controversial — creating a team of successful African Americans versus a team of successful whites. Whether people like that idea or not, it is somewhat reflective of our very vicious world."

The 2010s

• 2010 - National controversy sparked over the "Ground Zero Mosque" proposal, which would place a Muslim community center in Lower Manhattan, near the site of the 9/11 attacks. Trump offered to buy out one of the investors in the project. In an appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman, Trump argued, "I think it's very insensitive to build it there. I think it's not appropriate, I think it's insensitive and it shouldn't be built there." In reference to Muslims, he also said “Well, somebody’s blowing us up. Somebody’s blowing up buildings, and somebody’s doing lots of bad stuff.”
• 2011 - Trump played a huge role in the birtherism movement pushing false rumors that Barack Obama was not born in the United States. He sent investigators to Hawaii to look into Obama's birth certificate. Obama later released his birth certificate (not that it ever stopped the conspiracy).
  • August 2012, Trump via Twitter: "An 'extremely credible source' has called my office and told me that BarackObama's birth certificate is a fraud."
  • September 2012, Trump via Twitter: "Wake Up America! See article: "Israeli Science: Obama Birth Certificate is a Fake"" [I didn't include the article linked in the tweet because it was removed.]
  • September 2013, Trump via Twitter: "@obamafraudulent: @realDonaldTrump @d18mt2 The birth certificate that you forced Obama to show is a computer generated forgery."
  • June 2014, Trump via Twitter: "Always remember, I was the one who got Obama to release his birth certificate, or whatever that was! Hilary couldn't, McCain couldn't."
  • Even in private, Trump continues to push this conspiracy theory.
    • The article linked also shows research linking "birtherism" and racism.
• 2011 - In addition to the birtherism conspiracy, Trump also argued that Barack Obama wasn't a good enough student to have attended Columbia or Harvard Law, and demanded that he released his university transcripts. He claimed, “I heard he was a terrible student. Terrible. How does a bad student go to Columbia and then to Harvard?”

2016 Candidacy

• 2015 - Donald Trump launches his 2016 presidential campaign by calling Mexicans "rapists" who are "bringing crime and drugs" into the United States.
• 2015 - Trump claimed that if he were elected president, he would build a wall around the US-Mexico border and demanded that Mexico would pay for it.
• 2015 - Trump called for a ban of all Muslims attempting to enter the United States.
  • Though it was watered down, his administration eventually implemented a Muslim ban.
  • A 2016 Trump ad called for a "shutdown of Muslims entering the US."
• 2015 - During an appearance at the Republican Jewish Coalition, Trump said, "Look, I'm a negotiator like you folks; we're negotiators."
• 2015 - When pressed repeatedly for details on his immigration platform, Trump vowed that his administration would create a "humane deportation force." He declined to go into specifics, but claimed that he would deport millions of illegal immigrants, and that it would be doable and cheap.
  • He claimed that it would be similar to President Eisenhower's "Operation Wetback" initiative, which deported 1.5 million illegal immigrants by bus, truck, and boat and dropped them off at remote parts of the US-Mexico border.
• 2016 - During a Republican debate, Trump was asked about his claim, "Islam hates us." When asked if 1.6 billion Muslims hate the US, he responded, "I mean a lot of them."
  • The claim originates from this CNN interview which aired the day before the debate.
• 2016 - Trump argued that Judge Gonzalo Curiel - who presided over the Trump University lawsuit - should recuse himself due to his Mexican heritage and membership with the Latino lawyers association.
• 2016 - Trump declines to condemn support and endorsements from former KKK leader David Duke and other white supremacists. "Honestly, I don't know David Duke. I don't believe I've ever met him. I'm pretty sure I didn't meet him. And I just don't know anything about him."
  • Trump regularly retweeted messages from neo-Nazis and white supremacists.
• 2016 - At the Republican convention, Trump officially declared himself the "law and order" candidate.
• 2016 - Trump tweeted (and later deleted) an image showing Hillary Clinton in front of a pile of money and the Star of David that said, "Most Corrupt Candidate Ever!" Despite the backlash, Trump insisted that the Star of David was really a sheriff's badge, and that the campaign shouldn't have taken it down.
  • This image was later reposted to Twitter, replacing the Star of David with a circle.
  • One of the biggest conspiracies among the alt-right is that politicians are controlled by Jewish money. This article explains how it became huge.
• 2016 - In a pitch to black voters, Trump said, “You’re living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs, 58 percent of your youth is unemployed. What the hell do you have to lose?”
• 2016 - During a campaign rally, Trump pointed out a black man in the crowd and said, "Look at my African-American over here!"

Presidency

• 2017 - President Trump said during a meeting that Haitians "all have AIDS", and that Nigerian immigrants would never "go back to their huts" in Africa.
• 2017 - During a White House event to honor the World War II Navajo Code Talkers, Trump went on the attack and referred to Sen. Elizabeth Warren as "Pocahontas."
  • Family members of the Navajo Code Talkers resented this racist jab.
• 2017 - Trump asked April Ryan, a veteran black journalist, to help set up a meeting between him and the Congressional Black Caucus by asking her, "Are they friends of yours?" Prior to this, Trump denounced conditions in inner cities by saying that African-Americans are "living in hell."
  • The CBC tweeted: "Hi, @realDonaldTrump. We’re the CBC. We sent you a letter on January 19, but you never wrote us back. Sad!"
    • Here is the letter they wrote to President Trump.
• 2017 - Trump repeatedly attacked NFL players who protested during the national anthem, claiming that this is "hurting the game."
  • He fired off a series of tweets defending the US flag and calling for a boycott of the NFL.
    • Tweets in question: [1], [2], [3], [4]
• 2017 - A week after the violent protests in Charlottesville, VA, Trump claimed that "many sides" were responsible for the clashing that ensured. He also claimed that there were "very fine people" on "both sides" - equating the white supremacists to the counter-protestors fighting against racism. Trump's briefing was nothing more than a dog whistle to white supremacists.
  • White nationalist Richard Spencer praised the president's remarks and thanked him for "defending the truth."
  • Here is the White House transcript containing Trump's remarks.
  • The White House tried to clarify the president's statement by saying that he condemns hate groups.
  • In 2019, Trump was asked if he still thought there were "very fine people on both sides." He responded, "Oh, I’ve answered that question. And if you look at what I said, you will see that that question was answered perfectly. [...] And I was talking about people that went because they felt very strongly about the monument to Robert E. Lee, a great general. Whether you like it or not, he was one of the great generals."
• 2018 - Trump held a meeting in the Oval Office with lawmakers about protecting immigrants from Haiti, El Salvador, and African countries as part of a bipartisan immigration deal. Referring to these countries, Trump grew frustrated and asked, "Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?"
  • Trump denied making this comment.
  • On the other hand, the White House suggested that this comment and his remarks about the NFL would resonate with his base.
• 2019 - Trump mocked Elizabeth Warren's presidential campaign in a tweet, referring to her as "Pocahontas" and saying, "See you on the campaign TRAIL, Liz!"
  • The capitalization of "TRAIL" refers to the Trail of Tears, an act of ethnic cleansing which forcibly relocated Native Americans and resulted in thousands of deaths.
• 2019 - Trump fired a series of tweets directed at Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ayanna Pressley, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib, claiming they are “from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe” and that they should "go back."
  • Tweets in question: [1], [2], [3]
• 2020 - Trump has referred to the coronavirus as the "Chinese virus/China virus" and "kung flu." Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany has defended his usage of this rhetoric, claiming that these names simply connect the virus with its place of origin.
  • Trump has been defending his usage of the phrase "Chinese virus" since mid March.
  • Since April, Trump has posted and shared multiple tweets containing the phrases "Chinese virus" and "China virus."
  • Stop AAPI Hate, an organization dedicated to tracking self-reported hostile anti-Asian instances since late March, says it has received over 2,000 reports since the project began. The group says it saw a surge in reports after Trump began using this rhetoric.
    • The group found that many anti-China comments were frequently associated with verbal and physical assault.
• 2020 - Trump went on a Twitter rant bashing NASCAR for banning the Confederate flag (and defended the history of the flag), and lashed out at both the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Indians for considering changing team names.
  • This sparked Trump's new series of ads claiming that a Biden administration would defund the police.
  • Via Twitter, he then accused Chicago and New York City of protecting criminals under the "Sanctuary City" title.
  • Trump also attacked Bubba Wallace, the only black NASCAR driver, claiming he was promoting a "hoax" by reporting the finding of a noose in his garage.

---------------------
Some compilation articles: 86 Times Trump Displayed or Promoted Islamophobia |Donald Trump's Long History of Clashes with Native Americans | Why Trump Dishonors Native Americans | Trump Keeps Being Racist to Native Americans and Getting Away With It | Trump's Attacks on the Legal Immigration System Explained | Trump's Most Insulting - and Violent - Language Is Often Reserved for Immigrants | The Collected Quotes of Donald Trump on "The Blacks" | The Ever-Growing List of Trump's Most Racist Rants | The Trump Administration's Record of Racism
An interesting find: Woody Guthrie wrote about his contempt for his landlord, Fred Trump

Since the Diamond Casino update, I have seen a large number of 12-year-olds posting Blackjack memes on this sub. As a parent, this has me very worried.
On top of that, I have seen some of the most trustworthy GTA Youtubers giving flawed gambling advice, which can have damaging impact on their gullible audiences.
So that's why I decided to write this up, to educate everyone on the subject, so there will be no more misunderstandings.
(2020 Update down at the bottom.)
If you're one of those Youtubers that wants to use this information in a video, feel free to do so. The more people (especially kids) that become educated about gambling, the better.
But then also please go back and review your own work, and delete or edit the videos that are giving out the wrong advice, like where you're saying you have "a good strategy for making money with roulette", or some other nonsense that I've heard this week. Delete that please.
Before I get into the individual games, I need to discuss a few concepts first, that will make understanding the rest a lot easier.
​
Expected return and variance
A game like Roulette or Slots has a fixed expected return on your bets. This is a percentage that you have no way of influencing. Say you are flipping a coin against a friend, and you both put up $1. The winner gets the pot. Since the odds are even at 50%, in the long run, you will expect to break even. Your expected return is 100% of your bet.
But imagine if you would play this coin flipping game in a casino against the house. On the "house rules" listed at the table they would probably say that you would only get 95 cents back for every win, while you are forfeiting a dollar on every loss. Would you still play?
Sounds stupid to do so, but still, everybody does it. Every bet they place on Roulette, every coin they put into a Slot machine, is based on the same concept.
Those few cents they take on every bet are their profit margin, and has paid for all the Vegas lights, the Mirage volcanoes, and the Bellagio fountains. Make no mistake - casino gambling games are not designed to make you lose, because sure, you can get lucky on a single night, but they are designed to make them win. That's the beauty of it. They can both exist at the same time.
Too many people that don't see how this works, are just destined for disaster. Just because you went on a lucky streak and won 8 games out of 10, does not mean that flipping coins is a profitable game, or that choosing tails is a winning strategy. Always be aware of the house edge, your true chances of winning, and just realize that you got lucky. There is no such thing as a strategy in flipping a coin that will give you a higher expected return, so it's just pure gambling, just like Slots and Roulette.
Most casino games are made in such a way, that your expected return is a little under 100%. This means that from every dollar bet at the tables, the casino expects to keep a few cents. For individual players, results may vary. Some will win, most will lose. But for the house, it doesn't matter. They take millions of bets each day, so for them, the expected average works out a lot sooner. In short: the house always wins.
When looking at the house edge, we're talking about the expected long-term result, based on the game's house rules. But for a player, it can take literally tens of thousands of hands or spins before you also reach this average number. Until that time, you can experience huge upswings and downswings, that are the result of nothing but short-term luck, which is called variance.
Some games and some bets have a much higher variance than others, which means your actual results will differ enormously from what you're expected to be at.
Take for example betting on red/black at the Roulette table. This is a low-variance proposition, because it has a high percentage chance of occurring, and a low payout.
Contrast this with betting single numbers in Roulette, which only win once every 38 spins on average. This bet has a much higher variance, meaning you can easily hit a dry spell, and not hit anything for 200 bets in a row, or you can see a single number hit three times in five consecutive spins. This is not a freak occurrence in high-variance bets.
Even though the expected return in both these bets is exactly the same, there's a huge difference in variance, causing massive differences in short-term results, which can go both ways. You need to be aware of this, before you decide what types of bets you are comfortable with placing.
​
Gamblers' Fallacy
Another thing to realize, is that each individual game, hand, or spin, is completely independent from the one(s) before it, and after it.
Gamblers tend to believe, that the chance of a certain outcome is increased, based on previous results.
The most famous example comes from the Casino de Monte Carlo, where the Roulette wheel managed to land on black 26 times in a row. Gamblers lost many millions during that streak, all frantically betting on red, believing that the odds were in favor of the wheel coming out on red, after producing so many blacks. This is not true. Each round is completely independent, and the odds are exactly the same.
You will hear people say things like a Blackjack table being "hot" or "cold", which is completely superstitious, and should be ignored. The exception was when Blackjack was being dealt from a shoe. It made card counting possible. But with the introduction of shuffle machines, and continuous shuffling like is being used in GTA, this no longer exists.
This is also why "chasing your losses" is a very bad idea. After being on a losing streak for some time, many gamblers believe that now it's their turn to start winning. So they will often increase their bet size, believing that when their predicted winning streak comes around, they will win back their losses, and more.
The reality of it, more often than not, is that people will indeed start playing higher and higher limits, until they are completely broke. Nobody is ever "due for a win". There is never a guarantee that you're about to start winning. In fact, the opposite is more likely to be true. You are, after all, in a casino.
​
Betting systems
Some people like to think that they have a fool-proof betting system, like the Martingale system. Simply increase or even double your bet when you lose, and keep doing that until you win. In theory, this system will always win. So that's why table limits were introduced, and where the system fails.
If you start at the Roulette table, playing red/black, with a small 750 chip wager, and just double your bet every time you lose, you only have to lose 6 times in a row, before you will be betting the table limit of 48,000, just to get that 750 chip profit.
Sure, you can go on all evening without this happening, winning 750 chips each time, but this losing streak only has to happen once, and you're bust. Any betting system like this is ill-advised, because you are hugely increasing your so-called "risk of ruin", and that's what we were trying to avoid.
And even if your starting bet is only 100 chips, after only nine straight losses, and nine doubled bets, you are betting the table limit at 50,000 chips. If you lose that bet, you're 100,000 chips in the hole, with no way to recover that with your 100 chip base wager.
So don't believe anyone that says this is the perfect system to always win in the casino. Sooner or later they will understand why they were wrong, when they're asking you for a loan.
​
Set your limits BEFORE you start playing
One final point before we get into the games, a general tip for people that head out to play: money management.
Just like in real life, before you go to the casino, decide on a maximum amount that you are WILLING TO LOSE.
Bet small enough, so that amount can last you through the entire evening, and you will not be tempted to run to the ATM to continue playing.
Considering GTA money, some people will be comfortable losing 1% of their GTA bank balance, some people will be comfortable with gambling away 5% of their total GTA savings. It's up to you what you can handle. Decide for yourself where it will start to hurt, and don't cross that line.
But whatever number you decide on, as soon as you lost that amount, get up and walk away. Don't chase your losses, stick to your limits, and accept that this has not been your day. There is always another game tomorrow. Always agree with yourself on a simple stop-loss rule, how much you would want to lose at most, and simply stop playing when you get there.
Same goes for winning. You can decide on a number, how much profit you would like to take away from the casino. You can go on a hot streak and be up half a million in a short period of time, but if you would continue to play longer, looking for more, chances are that you're going to lose it all back.
Most people are happy with doubling their daily casino budget, for example. Others are looking for 10 bets profit in Blackjack. Whatever you choose, when you hit that number, you can stop playing and bank your profits, or you can continue playing if you're still enjoying the games, but then only just play minimum bet sizes. Then you're just playing for fun, not for money. You've already made your profit, so simply keep it in your pocket, and don't risk losing it again.
Either way, decide on what your money management strategy will be, and STICK TO IT.
​
Casino games in GTA Online
Now, I'm going to dive into the games that you can find at the Diamond casino, ordered from worst to best.
​
6) Slots
Generally the rule is this: the less strategy a game has, the worse it is for the player. And with slots, this is definitely the case.
The only influence you have, is choosing what type of machine you're going to play. Basically, there are two types of slot machines:
-high frequency, low payout slots
-low frequency, high payout slots
In the first type, there is no huge (progressive) jackpot on offer, just your average selection of prizes that don't go up to crazy amounts.
This will result in a player having many more spins resulting in a win. The amounts that you win on the bigger prizes, will be smaller, but they do come around more often. This type of slot machine has a lower variance, which means that your money should last you longer, winning many smaller prizes along the way to keep you going.
The second type of slot machine lures you in with the temptation of a huge jackpot prize. Even though the long-term expected return on these machines is the same as the previous type, the prize distribution is hugely different. The large jackpot prize weighs heavily on the scale of expected return, but the chance of it hitting is extremely small. This results in a much higher variance on this type of machine. Usually your money will go down very fast, because the smaller prizes are less rewarding than on the other type of machine.
At the Diamond, the info screen says the player return at slots is set at 98.7%. This means that, on average, for every maximum bet of 2,500 chips, you expect to lose 32.5 chips.
This might not seem like a lot, but the danger of slots is that the game is extremely fast. You can spin about once every 6 seconds, which would result in an expected LOSS of about 20,000 chips per hour of playing.
But again, in this long-term expected number, the large jackpot awards are also factored in, and as long as you don't hit those big prizes, you'll see your money go down a lot faster.
In any case, thank heavens the max bet is only set at 2,500, or else we would see more players go bankrupt at alarming rates.
Optimal strategy for slots:
There is none. Because after betting, you have no more influence over the outcome. The only choices you have, is what type of machine you want to play at, and how much money you are going to risk. And those are all personal preference. As long as you stick to your loss limits, as discussed above, there's no harm in having a go every once in a while, hoping to get a lucky hit. Just realize that you don't have a high chance of scoring a big win, so as soon as you do, get up and walk away.
​
5) Roulette
Roulette is also a game where you have no influence over the outcome. There is zero skill involved. You place your bet, and that's it.
In traditional French roulette, a table has only the single-zero, but of course, for American casinos that wasn't enough of a house edge, so they simply doubled their profits by adding a second zero. The house edge was increased from 1/37 to 1/19, which is huge.
This makes playing on a double-zero roulette table by definition a sucker's play.
The payouts scale evenly, which means that a bet on a single number, and a bet on half of the numbers, and everything in between, yields the same expected return. The only difference, again, being the variance that you are willing to subject yourself to.
The player return for double-zero Roulette for all bets is 94.74%.
Except for the 5-number bet, which can only be made by placing a bet on the two top rows that contain 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3. The expected return on this bet is lower: 92.1%. This is because it only pays out 6-1. Why? Well, the number 36 isn't divisible by 5, so the greedy people that came up with double-zero Roulette had to round it off someway, and as expected, it wasn't going to be in the players' favor.Just remember that that 5-number bet is the worst bet at the table, and should be avoided. All other possible bets have the same expected return.
So it really doesn't matter how you spread your bets, if you bet only one chip, or if you litter the entire table with a bucketload of chips. Each chip you put out there, has the same expected return, so there is no strategy that will improve your long-term results.
Assuming that you're betting the maximum table amount of 50,000 chips, you will be looking at an expected loss of about 2,630 chips per spin. Considering that a round takes about 45 seconds to complete, your expected LOSS at the GTA Roulette tables will be around 200,000 chips per hour of playing.
Optimal strategy for double-zero roulette:
Stay away. Stay far away.
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4) Three Card Poker
With Three Card Poker, we come across the first game where there is actually some strategy involved. You get to look at your cards, and then decide if you want to fold, and surrender your ante, or double your bet.
Additionally, you can choose to place a side bet on "Pair Plus", which offers progressive payouts.
There are some websites out there that ran all the numbers with computer simulations, and even though I would like to quote the source here, these websites are understandably littered to the max with online casino ads, so that's why I have decided against doing that.
Optimal strategy for Three Card Poker:
For this game you only have to remember one strategy rule: Always bet on any high card queen-six-four or better, and fold any high card queen-six-three or lower. That's it. Just don't forget to double check if you're not folding a straight or a flush, and you'll be fine.
This strategy will result in an expected return of 96.63%.
The Pair Plus sidebet, with the payout table that is used at the Diamond casino, gives you an expected return of 97.68%, which is actually a bit better than the main ante bet.
So by playing both wagers, you're reducing your expected losses per bet, but since you're betting more, you're also increasing your expected loss per hour.
My advice would obviously be to not play this game at all, but if you do, put as much of your bet as possible on the Pair Plus, while making our Ante bet as small as you can.
To be able to compare it to the other games at the Diamond, let's stay on that 50,000 maximum wager, meaning making your ante bet 35,000, and your pair plus bet 15,000, if the table would allow it.
This results in an expected loss of about 1,525 chips per hand, and with a round taking about 45 seconds, this adds up to an expected LOSS of around 120,000 chips per hour of playing. In comparison, if you would only play the ante bet for 50,000 per hand, you expect to lose 1,685 chips per hand, which means an expected LOSS of about 135,000 chips per hour. So the more out of that 50,000 wager you can put on the "Pair Plus" sidebet, the better.
Even though it may be fun to try out this game for a bit, since there's only one simple strategy rule to follow, you'll soon find yourself robotically grinding down your bankroll until it has vaporized. You're not missing out on anything if you skip these tables, there is no real challenge.
Just like with Roulette and Slots, if you want to try it out nonetheless, you can just bet the minimum amounts and only play for fun, so it won't matter if you win or lose.
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3) Blackjack
Blackjack is the most complicated game by far. Simply because the player has to make a series of decisions, which will largely decide the outcome. Luckily, there is such a thing as an optimal strategy, which will be outlined below.
However, the strategy is also dependent on the house rules. These not only affect your expected return, but in some places also your decisions.
Here are the house rules at the Diamond casino:
-The game uses 4 standard decks, and a continuous shuffle.
-Blackjack pays 3 to 2, dealer checks for early blackjack.
-No insurance offered, no surrender.
-Dealer stands on soft 17.
-Double down on any two cards.
-Player can split only once, but doubling after split is allowed.
-Seven-Card Charlie.
Under these rules, and following the "basic strategy" chart, your expected return at Blackjack is a shade under 99.6%, which is extremely good for a casino game, that's why Blackjack should be your table game of choice.
But it comes at a price: you are going to have to memorize the relatively complicated strategy chart, or at least stick it to your monitor until you have it in your head. But in case you ever stumble into a real-life casino, you won't regret having this table memorized, so I would definitely advise you to work on that.
The strategy chart might look complicated at first, but you will be able to notice certain patterns. Your decisions are mainly based on the dealer's upcard, which is basically divided into a weak card (2 to 6), and a strong card (7 to ace).
When a dealer shows a strong card, you will be hitting more often with the risk of going bust, but when a dealer shows a weak card, you're not taking that risk, and you will be standing more, but also doubling and splitting more. You want to increase your bets when the odds are in your favor, and get out cheap when they're not.
But it also helps to take some time to think about why a certain advice is given. For example, why does it say that you always have to split two eights, even against an ace. Well, that's because two eights equals 16, which is the worst total you can have. It's better to split them up, and give yourself a chance of finding a 17, 18 or 19 with the next card. Once you see the logic in that, you'll have one less thing to memorize.
The playing advice in the basic strategy chart is a result of computer simulations that ran all possible outcomes against each other, and produced the most profitable decision for each situation. So you can't go wrong following it.
Optimal strategy for Blackjack with Seven-Card Charlie
The added house rule of Seven-Card Charlie, adds a small advantage for the player, and it does influence a few strategy decisions. For example, you might have a 14 with 6 cards, against the dealer's 5 upcard.
Normally this would be an automatic stand, but if you're only one card away from the Seven-Card Charlie, meaning an instant win for the player, regardless of the dealer's hand, it turns it into a hit.
Here's the most optimal strategy chart to follow for the Diamond Casino house rules: https://prnt.sc/olct6g
You'll see that two fives are missing from the chart, and that's because you never split them. You treat them as a regular 10. You also never split tens. Just stand on 20.
If you follow this strategy religiously, even with a maximum wager of 50,000 chips, you only expect to lose about 215 chips per hand, and with rounds taking about 30 seconds, that amounts to an expected LOSS of 26,000 chips per hour, which is only half a bet. A small price to pay for an hour of entertainment.
But since the expected return is so extremely close to 100%, you will see more positive short-term results than with other games. But obviously it can also swing the other way. Again, this is supposed to be the game where your money lasts you the longest, but always set your loss and win limits before you sit down. That rule simply always applies.
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Still, even with optimal strategies applied, all these games are expected to lose you money in the long run. So betting any kind of large amounts is not advised. If you simply want to enjoy playing these games, there's nothing wrong with betting a minimal amount. Playing these games for a longer period of time will already cost you money anyway, since your daily property fees will still be charged while you're playing in the GTA casino. As long as you can play for fun, there's nothing wrong, but when you see yourself betting insane chunks of your entire bank balance to try to recoup some unfortunate losses, you're doing it wrong.
As the commercials in Britain all correctly say: when the fun stops, stop.
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2) Virtual Horse Racing
Now onto the good stuff. I ran some numbers, and I believe Rockstar has made a mistake with the horse racing game. Because as it stands, and if I read the numbers correctly, this game is actually profitable for the player. You can actually make money with this, at least, until Rockstar figures out their mistake and patches it.
If anyone wants to jump into the math and double check this to make sure, please do so. I will add any corrections to this post. This is one of those "to good to be true" things, so I keep thinking that I might have overlooked something. So please verify it if you can.
The setup is this. There is a pool of 100 horses, each with their own attached payout. These are divided into 3 groups, ranked by their odds. From each group, 2 horses are randomly selected to provide a pool of six runners for you to bet on.
Now it's not an actual race you're looking at. You are looking at a raffle. This is important to realize.
Each horse gets awarded a certain number of raffle tickets. The favorites get awarded more tickets than the underdogs, and therefore, have a higher chance of winning.
If this distribution works like it does in the real-life casinos, then the raffle tickets are awarded according to the betting odds.
Example 1: imagine a race with 3 runners, all have 2/1 odds, representing a 33.3% chance of winning. (Because 2/1 means 2 AGAINST 1, so 3 total.) In this case, each horse gets one third of the raffle tickets, giving them an equal chance to win.
Example 2: imagine a race with 3 runners, one has 1/1 odds (or EVENS), representing a 50% chance of winning, and the other two horses are marked up as 3/1, with a 25% chance of winning. The favorite gets half the tickets, the other two get a quarter of the tickets each.
A ticket is drawn, and you'll have a winner.
It doesn't matter in this game which horse you bet on, because the expected return is always the same: 100% or break-even, for the above examples.
Now, what happens if the percentages don't exactly add up to 100%?
They must add up to 100%, because there will always be a winner. And only one winner.
So when this is the case, the actual winning chances of the horses are adjusted to meet the 100% requirement, using their payout odds to determine the scale.
So, if the represented percentages add up to more than 100%, the actual winning chances of the runners will be DECREASED, resulting in all bets becoming losing propositions for the players.
Example: In a 6-horse race, all runners are listed at 4/1, representing a 20% chance. Only with six runners that amounts to 120%. So all chances are scaled down by 1/6th, to end up at 100%.
This means your horse's chances are reduced from 20% to 16.67%, turning it into a losing bet: 5 times you will lose your bet, and 1 time you will win, but only get 4 bets back in this instance, instead of 5. A losing bet in the long run.
This is the type of odds that you find in regular casinos, with fields as large as 15 runners to bet on, where the assumed winning chances always add up to more than 100%, therefore are decreased for all runners, resulting in a house edge.
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But in GTA Online's Inside Track, there are other scenarios, because of the small field, and the way that they are put together.
In some cases, the represented percentages when added up, are LESS than 100%, meaning that the actual winning chances of all runners, are INCREASED.
This creates profitable bets for the players, because in the long run, you're expecting to win more money than you lose. This is a gambler's dream, pure and simple.
So, according to the in-game information, the three groups of horses are divided as follows:
-Favorites: EVENS to 5-1
-Outsiders: 6-1 to 15-1
-Underdogs: 16-1 to 30-1
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Let's take the two most extreme examples to show what's happening.
The worst possible field to bet on: two runners at EVENS, two runners at 6-1, and two runners at 16-1.
EVENS represents a 50% chance, 6-1 is 14.29%, and 16-1 is 5.88%. Add those up and you land on a total of 140.34%.
This means that the actual winning chances of the horses are decreased by 28.75% (to get that 140% down to 100%), which makes betting on this field extremely unwise.
A horse at EVENS will only come in as a winner 35.63% of the time, instead of 50%,
a horse at 6-1 will only win 10.18% of the time,
and an underdog at 16-1 will only win 4.19% of the time.
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The expected return on a bet on any of the horses in this field is only 71.26%, so a maximum bet of 10,000 chips on any of these horses holds an expected LOSS of 2,875 chips.
These returns are the same, because the winning chances are scaled equally, according to the payout numbers. So it really doesn't matter which horse you bet on, in the long run, you expect the same results.
But as explained before, it does influence variance, and therefore your short-term result, which can swing both ways.
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But now, the best possible field to bet on: two runners at 5-1, two runners at 15-1, and two runners at 30-1.
Odds at 5-1 represents a winning chance of 16.67%, 15-1 odds means 6.25% chance, and 30-1 odds means a 3.23% chance of winning. Add these six horses together, and you only get 52.285%.
This means that, to get from 52% to 100%, the actual winning chances of these horses will be almost doubled! Multiplied by 1.91 to be exact.
So the 5-1 favorites will now win 31.88% of the time, instead of 16.67%,
the 15-1 runners will win 11.95% of the time,
and the underdogs at 30-1 odds will still win 6.17% of the time.
When betting on this field, the expected return on your bet is 191.25%!
This means that a max bet of 10,000 chips will result in an expected PROFIT of 9,125 chips.
This is printing money, if there ever was such a thing.
Optimal strategy for Virtual Horse racing
So all you have to do, is only bet high on the games where you have an expected positive return, and bet the absolute minimum on the games where your expected return is negative. Or back out of the racing game to refresh the field.
If you don't have a way to quickly add up all the percentages, and until somebody shows up here with a neatly formatted table, just use a few general rules of thumb:
-Always bet the maximum on a race with favorites at 2/1 and 3/1 or higher in it.
-Simply skip all races with two favorites at EVENS in it, and at EVENS and 2/1. Or bet the minimum, if you can't skip or refresh the field.
-To decide if you should play races with other favorite combinations EVENS and 3/1, EVENS and 4/1, EVENS and 5/1, or two favorites at 2/1, the payouts on the other four runners determine whether or not it's profitable to play them. The results of betting on these fields vary from an expected 1,330 chip loss (worst-case) to an expected 1,680 chip win (best-case), with a max bet of 10,000 chips.
But if you're not looking for another strategy chart, you might just want to skip these borderline cases, and just cherry pick the best ones, which are easy to recognize, and with which you can never go wrong.
It's difficult to put a number on an expected win-rate, because it all depends on which fields you get presented with, but it's not unreasonable to state that you can maintain a steady win-rate of around 200,000 chips per hour, with about 50 seconds per race.
Remember, you're not trying to win every race. You're trying to win the most money per hour. So don't sweat it when you bet on a 4/1 favorite, and lose a couple of races in a row. It will still be more profitable in the long run. You have the math on your side.
To reduce negative variance, always bet on the favorite, when betting on profitable fields. We're not gambling anymore, we're grinding out a steady profit. We want to keep the swings to a minimum.
I contacted Rockstar support to verify if this is indeed how it works, but the only reply I got after 6 weeks is that they were "looking into it".
User u/Garsant made a useful Excel-worksheet, available for you to download, where you can quickly type in the payouts on the horses, to see if it produces a profitable bet or not. You can find it in his post here: https://www.reddit.com/gtaonline/comments/ekp8na/gta_online_inside_track_odd_calculato
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1) Wheel of Fortune
The number one profitable casino game in GTA Online is obviously the Wheel of Fortune, because it costs you nothing to play.
Unfortunately, you only get one free spin per day, but it holds great value, so make sure you do it.
With a chance to win a super car, vehicle discounts, expensive mystery prizes (which also can be vehicles), and a lot of cash and chips, the expected return on a single spin is around $100,000 in value.
So don't forget your daily spin, it's definitely worth your time.
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2020 Update:
As of the Diamond Casino Heist update, the Inside Track horse racing is confirmed to still be as profitable as outlined above.The only thing that seems to be changed, is that you can't refresh the field anymore by backing out of the screen. This does affect your hourly rate in a negative way, but does not change the fact that this game has a huge positive expected return, and should be your go-to when you're trying to take money from the house, without having Lester's nagging voice in your ear. That should also be worth something.
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And with that, I conclude my 5,000 word essay on gambling in GTA. Questions, comments, feel free to add your input to this guide.
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Cliffs:
-Gambling games should only be played for fun, not for big money. You should expect to lose in the long run. The house always wins.
-A casino game doesn't have a memory, and betting systems don't work.
-Set your limits before you start, how much you are willing to lose or win, and then walk away when you get there.
-Don't play slots, roulette, or three card poker.
-Only play blackjack following a basic strategy chart (https://prnt.sc/olct6g).
-Inside Track betting can be played profitably, if you only bet on fields WITHOUT a heavy favorite.
-Wheel of Fortune is always your best bet, because it's a free bet.